By awarding the 2007 Peace Prize to former vice-president of the US, Al Gore, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Nobel Prize Committee has clearly signalled the importance of stabilising the earth’s climate for ensuring peace and stability in the world.
As a scientific body involving thousands of the most qualified experts from all over the world, the IPCC has focused its activities on assessment of all aspects of climate change over the past 19 years of its existence, and has naturally not drawn any linkage between the impact of climate change and the issue of peace among human societies across the globe.
However, the Fourth Assessment Report, of which three volumes have been released, with the fourth, the Synthesis Report to be completed in November 2007, has clearly brought out several dimensions of present and future climate change, which could affect stability and peace in several locations. For instance, it has been found that while the average global temperature during the 19th century increased by 0.740 degrees C, this was accompanied by changes in precipitation, which are likely to continue.
Hence, in the higher latitudes precipitation, including rainfall and snow, has increased whereas in the lower latitudes and the Mediterranean region it has decreased. There has also been an increase in extreme precipitation events, possibly such as the ones that resulted in the major cloudburst that took place in Mumbai during the monsoon season this year and the more severe one that occurred two years ago.
There are major equity issues associated with climate change, essentially arising out of the fact that the high concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that are causing climate change has been created cumulatively by the developed countries. However, some of the worst sufferers from the impacts of climate change are the poorest societies largely in Africa and parts of Asia. Poor communities even in the developed world are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as was revealed with Hurricane Katrina which devastated New Orleans in the US. In that case it was the poorest sections of society who suffered the most.
In the Sahelian region of Africa, the reduced length of the growing season as a result of climate change is causing detrimental effects on agriculture. In some African countries, yields could be reduced up to 50 per cent by 2020 and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90 per cent by 2100. Similarly, in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease up to 50 per cent by 2050. Overall surplus of foodgrains at the global level could as a result reach critical levels, which would make it impossible for the poorest countries in the world to import adequate quantities of foodgrain for their population at higher prices.
Perhaps the most significant impact of climate change is expected in respect to availability of water. There are several regions that are already afflicted by water stress. But the situation could worsen substantially due to changes in precipitation patterns, increasing salinity of groundwater due to increase in sea level and melting of glaciers which would result in decreased river flow.
The IPCC estimates that in South Asia alone perhaps 500 million people would be affected by reduced river flows in the northern part of the subcontinent and about 250 million in China. Water scarcity is already a source of tension between several states of India and certainly between India and Bangladesh. Climate change could add to these tensions. It is estimated that the range of people exposed to increased water stress by 2020 would include 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia, 75 to 250 million in Africa and 12 to 81 million in Latin America.
A major impact of climate change resulting from sea level rise would be the threat of coastal flooding. In this respect, the megadeltas of Asia have been assessed as particularly vulnerable. These include cities like Dhaka, Kolkata and Shanghai, where the density of population is extremely high and the threat of coastal flooding particularly serious. The danger of environmental refugees on account of climate change such as due to coastal flooding, acute water scarcity and extreme precipitation events and heatwaves could disrupt peace and security in several regions of the world. Also, droughts and floods which are increasing in several parts of the world in frequency and intensity could displace large numbers of people with consequences for the stability of society.
In general, social scientists have not devoted adequate attention to the consequences of climate change, but projections of the future clearly indicate that the severity of the problem justifies considerable research and investigation into associated prospects for peace and security. Such research is essential for the world to understand the requirements for adequate mitigation measures, which need to be taken in hand urgently to minimise and eliminate harmful impacts in the future.
The best estimates of average temperature increase by the end of the century are 1.80 degrees C at the lower end and 40 degrees C at the upper end. Combined with the 0.740 degrees C increase in the 20th century, these projections and the various discontinuities they would produce throughout the world are adequate cause for deep concern. It is for this reason that several world leaders are now highlighting climate change as the most serious threat facing humanity. The Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 adds a much more profound dimension to this subject, which the global community must consider seriously.
(The writer is chairman, IPCC, and director-general, TERI.)
As a scientific body involving thousands of the most qualified experts from all over the world, the IPCC has focused its activities on assessment of all aspects of climate change over the past 19 years of its existence, and has naturally not drawn any linkage between the impact of climate change and the issue of peace among human societies across the globe.
However, the Fourth Assessment Report, of which three volumes have been released, with the fourth, the Synthesis Report to be completed in November 2007, has clearly brought out several dimensions of present and future climate change, which could affect stability and peace in several locations. For instance, it has been found that while the average global temperature during the 19th century increased by 0.740 degrees C, this was accompanied by changes in precipitation, which are likely to continue.
Hence, in the higher latitudes precipitation, including rainfall and snow, has increased whereas in the lower latitudes and the Mediterranean region it has decreased. There has also been an increase in extreme precipitation events, possibly such as the ones that resulted in the major cloudburst that took place in Mumbai during the monsoon season this year and the more severe one that occurred two years ago.
There are major equity issues associated with climate change, essentially arising out of the fact that the high concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that are causing climate change has been created cumulatively by the developed countries. However, some of the worst sufferers from the impacts of climate change are the poorest societies largely in Africa and parts of Asia. Poor communities even in the developed world are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as was revealed with Hurricane Katrina which devastated New Orleans in the US. In that case it was the poorest sections of society who suffered the most.
In the Sahelian region of Africa, the reduced length of the growing season as a result of climate change is causing detrimental effects on agriculture. In some African countries, yields could be reduced up to 50 per cent by 2020 and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90 per cent by 2100. Similarly, in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease up to 50 per cent by 2050. Overall surplus of foodgrains at the global level could as a result reach critical levels, which would make it impossible for the poorest countries in the world to import adequate quantities of foodgrain for their population at higher prices.
Perhaps the most significant impact of climate change is expected in respect to availability of water. There are several regions that are already afflicted by water stress. But the situation could worsen substantially due to changes in precipitation patterns, increasing salinity of groundwater due to increase in sea level and melting of glaciers which would result in decreased river flow.
The IPCC estimates that in South Asia alone perhaps 500 million people would be affected by reduced river flows in the northern part of the subcontinent and about 250 million in China. Water scarcity is already a source of tension between several states of India and certainly between India and Bangladesh. Climate change could add to these tensions. It is estimated that the range of people exposed to increased water stress by 2020 would include 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia, 75 to 250 million in Africa and 12 to 81 million in Latin America.
A major impact of climate change resulting from sea level rise would be the threat of coastal flooding. In this respect, the megadeltas of Asia have been assessed as particularly vulnerable. These include cities like Dhaka, Kolkata and Shanghai, where the density of population is extremely high and the threat of coastal flooding particularly serious. The danger of environmental refugees on account of climate change such as due to coastal flooding, acute water scarcity and extreme precipitation events and heatwaves could disrupt peace and security in several regions of the world. Also, droughts and floods which are increasing in several parts of the world in frequency and intensity could displace large numbers of people with consequences for the stability of society.
In general, social scientists have not devoted adequate attention to the consequences of climate change, but projections of the future clearly indicate that the severity of the problem justifies considerable research and investigation into associated prospects for peace and security. Such research is essential for the world to understand the requirements for adequate mitigation measures, which need to be taken in hand urgently to minimise and eliminate harmful impacts in the future.
The best estimates of average temperature increase by the end of the century are 1.80 degrees C at the lower end and 40 degrees C at the upper end. Combined with the 0.740 degrees C increase in the 20th century, these projections and the various discontinuities they would produce throughout the world are adequate cause for deep concern. It is for this reason that several world leaders are now highlighting climate change as the most serious threat facing humanity. The Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 adds a much more profound dimension to this subject, which the global community must consider seriously.
(The writer is chairman, IPCC, and director-general, TERI.)
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