2008 may not have been the best of times but it wasn't the worst either. And there are plenty of things to look forward to in 2009. Global oil and commodity prices reached skywards last year fuelling inflation and a hike in interest rates in India. This was followed by tremors from the US financial crisis and the India story took a body blow, as projections for Indian GDP growth went down sharply from 9 per cent to possibly 5.5 per cent. On top of that there was a spate of terror attacks, culminating in the Lashkar-e-Taiba unleashing mayhem in Mumbai on 26/11. But this inventory doesn't exhaust everything of significance that happened in 2008. The glass was also half full.
Take the economy, for example, where oil prices plunged from record peaks of $147 in July to below $40 now. Inflation is coming down and that should enable interest rate cuts to restart India's consumption boom. Moreover, the current crisis has led to calls to redesign the global financial architecture and give a greater role to big emerging players such as India, a say in the world's economic affairs. To this end, heads of government of the Group of 20 already met in Washington in mid-November. G8 may now give way to G20, giving India a seat at the high table.
2008 hasn't been just a year of disasters; the momentum of change gathered pace as well and we may reap some fruits in 2009. Barack Obama ran on an overarching theme of unity and change and the US elected its first African-American president. The Bush administration may have been good for India in some respects it pushed through the nuclear deal but it has been bad in others, most notably by messing up the war on terror. It took its eye off the ball in Afghanistan and outsourced the anti-Taliban effort there to unreliable allies in Pakistan, while squandering its capital, both financial and moral, by invading Iraq. It also messed up the relationship with Russia and with Iran, which could have been instrumental in realising its goals in the war against terror. Statements from the Obama camp display a consistent awareness of the key role played by South Asia in global terror networks. The president-elect has also sent signals that he is willing to be flexible on Iran. He could reorganise US foreign policy to deal with present as opposed to previous, Cold War era challenges, a paradigm shift which will benefit India if it happens.
2008 has been a year of change in India too. Elections in Jammu and Kashmir evoked a huge response despite separatist calls for a boycott, propelling a young, moderate and centrist leader to the fore in the person of Omar Abdullah. That gave the lie to Pakistani propaganda premised on self-determination for Kashmir; there is in fact much greater self-determination for Kashmiris in India than in Pakistan. After two years of military rule in Bangladesh, elections have led to a landslide victory for Hasina Wajed's Awami League, which is also moderate and not as prone to India-bashing as the other prominent player in Bangladeshi politics, the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party-Jamaat combine. Maoists are playing by the rules of democracy in Nepal, which ceased to be a kingdom and joined South Asia's republican mainstream this year.
26/11 and subsequent anger at politicians could spark far-reaching changes in India's security architecture. Signs of such a revamp are evident in the government moving with alacrity to set up a federal force dedicated to tackling terror. There has also been international outrage at 26/11 and concerted pressure on Pakistan to wind up terror camps on its territory. If these positive tendencies play out they could help India turn the tide against terror in 2009.
There's also reason to be cheerful on the cricket field. The turnaround began when India defeated Australia in Perth, the home team's favoured ground. That win against many odds proved that this team could be resilient and take on the best in the world. Under M S Dhoni, Team India won its first one-day series Down Under. Later, Dhoni led India to series wins over Australia and England. The team played superb cricket, but more importantly, the team did not miss the services of two of India's greatest cricketers, Anil Kumble and Sourav Ganguly, who retired in 2008. With young cricketers like Ishant Sharma and Gautam Gambhir matching the seniors, Team India has reinvented itself as a tough squad, hungry for more success.
2009 could see a fresh start since general elections are expected soon. After they sabotaged the government by pulling out of it, and following the debacles in Nandigram and Singur, perhaps the Left's vote and seat share would decline this time. In that case, if the UPA wins, it will not need to carry the heavy baggage of the Left as it did through most of this term. And if it loses another coalition will enjoy a fresh start anyway. Whoever wins the election, it will be necessary to restart the reforms which moved India into its present high-growth path. 2009, we hope, will see India firing on all cylinders once again. But it won't happen without hard work and determined reform.
Take the economy, for example, where oil prices plunged from record peaks of $147 in July to below $40 now. Inflation is coming down and that should enable interest rate cuts to restart India's consumption boom. Moreover, the current crisis has led to calls to redesign the global financial architecture and give a greater role to big emerging players such as India, a say in the world's economic affairs. To this end, heads of government of the Group of 20 already met in Washington in mid-November. G8 may now give way to G20, giving India a seat at the high table.
2008 hasn't been just a year of disasters; the momentum of change gathered pace as well and we may reap some fruits in 2009. Barack Obama ran on an overarching theme of unity and change and the US elected its first African-American president. The Bush administration may have been good for India in some respects it pushed through the nuclear deal but it has been bad in others, most notably by messing up the war on terror. It took its eye off the ball in Afghanistan and outsourced the anti-Taliban effort there to unreliable allies in Pakistan, while squandering its capital, both financial and moral, by invading Iraq. It also messed up the relationship with Russia and with Iran, which could have been instrumental in realising its goals in the war against terror. Statements from the Obama camp display a consistent awareness of the key role played by South Asia in global terror networks. The president-elect has also sent signals that he is willing to be flexible on Iran. He could reorganise US foreign policy to deal with present as opposed to previous, Cold War era challenges, a paradigm shift which will benefit India if it happens.
2008 has been a year of change in India too. Elections in Jammu and Kashmir evoked a huge response despite separatist calls for a boycott, propelling a young, moderate and centrist leader to the fore in the person of Omar Abdullah. That gave the lie to Pakistani propaganda premised on self-determination for Kashmir; there is in fact much greater self-determination for Kashmiris in India than in Pakistan. After two years of military rule in Bangladesh, elections have led to a landslide victory for Hasina Wajed's Awami League, which is also moderate and not as prone to India-bashing as the other prominent player in Bangladeshi politics, the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party-Jamaat combine. Maoists are playing by the rules of democracy in Nepal, which ceased to be a kingdom and joined South Asia's republican mainstream this year.
26/11 and subsequent anger at politicians could spark far-reaching changes in India's security architecture. Signs of such a revamp are evident in the government moving with alacrity to set up a federal force dedicated to tackling terror. There has also been international outrage at 26/11 and concerted pressure on Pakistan to wind up terror camps on its territory. If these positive tendencies play out they could help India turn the tide against terror in 2009.
There's also reason to be cheerful on the cricket field. The turnaround began when India defeated Australia in Perth, the home team's favoured ground. That win against many odds proved that this team could be resilient and take on the best in the world. Under M S Dhoni, Team India won its first one-day series Down Under. Later, Dhoni led India to series wins over Australia and England. The team played superb cricket, but more importantly, the team did not miss the services of two of India's greatest cricketers, Anil Kumble and Sourav Ganguly, who retired in 2008. With young cricketers like Ishant Sharma and Gautam Gambhir matching the seniors, Team India has reinvented itself as a tough squad, hungry for more success.
2009 could see a fresh start since general elections are expected soon. After they sabotaged the government by pulling out of it, and following the debacles in Nandigram and Singur, perhaps the Left's vote and seat share would decline this time. In that case, if the UPA wins, it will not need to carry the heavy baggage of the Left as it did through most of this term. And if it loses another coalition will enjoy a fresh start anyway. Whoever wins the election, it will be necessary to restart the reforms which moved India into its present high-growth path. 2009, we hope, will see India firing on all cylinders once again. But it won't happen without hard work and determined reform.
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